I did a really simple Betfair football trade this week that anybody could do. But there was a fair amount of logic that went behind it.
Doing a decent trade is one thing, being long term profitable is another. So this video explains the thought process that went on for this trade.
I use a mixture of my knowledge and statistics and a bit of trading logic to pull off this trade.
Link do palpite
![5 Palpites de Futebol Hoje 01/04/2021 [GRÁTIS]](https://palpites.net/wp-content/themes/sociallyviral/images/nothumb-sociallyviral_related.png)
Thankyou for this one Peter, I saw this at the time you released it and made notes but seeing it again made me value the points even more you make here. Appreciated sir.
Which site/app do you use to review xG in-play?
I have to say, If Southampton were really under the cosh, I’m surprised they were priced as low as 1.06 with 60-65 minutes on the clock and only 2-0 up.
Brave to trad whilst in the stadium. The amount of times I struggle to get single in St Marys because the 4G is overloaded I’d be worried I couldn’t trade out.
Up the Saints.
I would argue that isn't a trade but a bet using a trading process.
hi peter just wondering where is best place buy a multi monitor pc from like yours as im struggling find a bundle
Is there a site that gives xG for an upcoming game? All the ones I have seen are retrospective.
HI Peter – yet another great video (for which many thanks!) I have a quick question about the momentum graphics you used – presumably from an app like SofaScore. How reliable do you find them for games where you can't watch live video? I happened to be following the recent Man City v Man Utd game via Sofa Score and according to the momentum indicators City were throwing the kitchen sink into getting back into the game and still they lost. I realise this was just one game, but over a wider set do you make explicit use of momentum, and if so how?
I watched this video today then Southampton went 0-1 up against Newcastle I remembered the stats and laid Southampton. They lost 2-1. At least they are consistent. Thanks Peter.
This is one of the best videos you've ever done Peter. the screen shot (at 17mins) isn't from ya phone, were you on laptop?
Really interesting video. I wonder what price Norwich were with the bookmakers to score the next goal at the point you made that trade? As the trade you made only wins if Norwich score next. I guess if Southampton did go 3-0 up then you could save some of your stake but surely they are 1.01 at that point? Also the fixed odds bet has no time decay and would still profit on a Norwich goal with just a few minutes to go where the trade would already be dead at that point.
What is XG?
Peter great to see you going into depth on the football markets – one question; where do you commonly look to collect your xG stats and data from? I see it increasingly being examined and wondered if you had any pointers.
Hi Peter,
I notice you said you were looking for a 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 chance of Norwich scoring. If you are only getting 2 to 1 back typically on your stake as we see you doing here, how does it make it a long term winning trade i.e. +EV?
I lay my team when playing. If they win, happy days, its like I bought it. If they lose, consolation prize with the money. 'The Man' doesn't know what to do lol. Btw, I follow NUFC 😉
Can you share how to control the bankroll for betting
Can I just say though, while this is a nice trade, given what you knew about the sentiment of the match and the numerous inflection points, you actually risked £100 and you made a profit of just over £200, so effectively 2/1. So you still have to be right about a goal going in at least 33% of the time to even break even (I understand the payoff could be more had the goal come earlier, or less if it'd come later – but I mean on average). Am I wrong here? Secondly, what do you use for all your stats?