#NHL #CSP #LEAFSNATION

Payback for the surrendered two-goal lead leading to the loss to the Ducks in California back on October 30 should be top of mind for a Leafs team that has come an impressively long way in terms of both its offensive and defensive play since that defeat.

The Leafs are in the midst of a streak of 14 games with at least a point, including 10 wins, and have played their way into the President’s Trophy mix, while the Anaheim Ducks have gone 3-10-2 since their overtime win over Toronto.

Remarkably, the Ducks have won a total of one game in the 60 minutes of regulation time this season, a 3-2 win over the New York Rangers on November 23. Mired in a one-win-in-eight-games stretch after last night’s 3-0 loss in Ottawa, their goal differential is now a league-worst -50.

As far as the Connor Bedard sweepstakes are concerned, the Ducks are playing a strong hand with the following numbers:
32nd in the NHL in goals for (2.34/game)
32nd in the NHL in goals against (4.17/game)
31st in the NHL on the power play (14.5%)
32nd in the NHL on the penalty kill (66%)
32nd in the NHL in shots against (37.5/game)
30th in the NHL in 5v5 shot attempt percentage (44.6%)
31st in the NHL in expected goals share (39.7%)
25th in the NHL in all-situations save percentage (.889)
By comparison, here are the Leafs‘ numbers through 29 games:

13th in the NHL in goals for (3.21/game)
3rd in the NHL in goals against (2.41/game)
8th in the NHL on the power play (25.3%)
12th in the NHL on the penalty kill (79.8%)
6th in the NHL in shots against (29.4/game)
16th in the NHL in shot attempt percentage (50.3%)
8th in the NHL in expected goals share (52.8%)
3rd in the NHL in all-situations save percentage (.918)
In terms of lineup changes for the Leafs, Pierre Engvall will return from his one-game suspension and will be back on a line with David Kampf, bumping Joey Anderson onto the fourth line and Wayne Simmonds back to the press box.

Taking the start in net is Ilya Samsonov, who has won his two starts since returning from injury on November 30, stopping 52 of 53 shots in victories over LA and San Jose. He has a chance to complete the home sweep over the California teams tonight.

Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines
Forwards
#58 Michael Bunting – #34 Auston Matthews – #88 William Nylander
#62 Denis Malgin – #91 John Tavares – #16 Mitch Marner
#15 Alex Kerfoot – #64 David Kämpf – #47 Pierre Engvall
#12 Zach Aston-Reese – #29 Pontus Holmberg – #28 Joey Anderson

Defensemen
#55 Mark Giordano – #3 Justin Holl
#38 Rasmus Sandin – #37 Timothy Liljegren
#78 TJ Brodie – #25 Conor Timmins
Goaltenders
Starter: #35 Ilya Samsonov
#30 Matt Murray

Extras: Wayne Simmonds
Injured: Nick Robertson, Calle Järnkrok, Jordie Benn, Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin

Anaheim Ducks Projected Lines
Forwards
#19 Troy Terry – #11 Trevor Zegras – #14 Adam Henrique
#44 Maxime Comtois – #16 Ryan Strome – #77 Frank Vatrano
#49 Max Jones – #37 Mason McTavish – #20 Brett Leason
#17 Jayson Megna – #39 Sam Carrick – #33 Jakob Silfverberg

Defensemen
#4 Cam Fowler – #29 Dmitry Kulikov
#13 Simon Benoit – #3 John Klingberg
#5 Urho Vaakanainen – #22 Kevin Shattenkirk

Goaltenders
Starter: #36 John Gibson
#1 Lukas Dostal
Injured/Out: Jamie Drysdale, Isac Lundestrom, Derek Grant, Anthony Stolarz

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