OK so it’s slightly longer than what could normally be considered a scalp, but here we are using Tennis trader to anticipate the movement in odds through somebody winning a service game.
You can only do this confidently using Tennis Trader as it will tell you the upside and downside, which varies dramatically during the match, at any one particular point in time. All matches are different, so it’s incredibly useful to have this information in front of you.
Tennis trader will also calculate the chance that each player has of winning a service game. Not just at the start of the that game but throughout the game as points are scored. This allows you to trade out at a suitable moment at the end or during the game. betfair
Link do Vídeo
This is such a simple strategy, it’s brilliant. Thanks once again for a superb video. This is the one that has convinced me to join up after my trial has finished.
Going to check out Tennis Trader tomorrow…if I can sleep! 😬 🎾
Bit weird. Assuming the predicted odds are accurate, the value would lie in LAYING Querry @ 3.0 not backing him.
Dear Peter, when employing this strategy, can you explain at what point you would hedge red if either players looks in trouble on serve?
awesome match – we like it 🙂
Hi Peter, just downloaded the Tennis Trader software on a tempory basis, what am I looking for if the trade is looking as if it's going against me, i.e. score is going in the receivers favour.. like 15-40 or 30-40 Advantage?, thanks in advance
If you lay at short price, say $100@ 1.40 (liability is $40). If then price fluctuates and goes up say to $2 then back with $90. So if player wins you win $90
$40(liability) = $50. If player loses, you win $100$90(back) = $10So win = $50
Lose = $10
You can vary it according to player so it's more even win or lose, Depending on player!
No problem, it's easy to misunderstand key elements of successful trade. If you are a Bet Angel customer you are welcome to get in contact and we can explain.
What assumptions, and how so?
I'm sorry if I'm coming off as a bit nit-picky – It is not my intention and I am not trying to prove you wrong – just have a genuine interest and trying to learn; in this case trying to mathematically calculate the value of a trade using expected profit and loss and chance of success. Am I missing something in my formula? Should the value of a trade be calculated in a different way?
Your calculations are correct but your assumption is not.
I have a question regarding the value of this trade.. If we assume that the given percentages and predicted odds are correct, then we're looking at the following numbers (assuming 5% commission):
With a £100 stake we run the risk of losing £30.41, and our potential profits are £5.67. Converted to conventional decimal odds, that equates to odds of 1.186. With an 83.3% chance of success, that gives a value figure lower than 100 – 98.79% (1.186*83.3).
So surely, this is a losing long-run trade?
@kwanhans – Unfortunately you not are thinking this through very clearly. You have forgotten a few key components. Have a think about it.
Also, don't forget you are trading, not betting. Value through trading is created in a completely different way to betting.
@ilDomski I completely agree. Youre risking 500 pounds to not even make 70, youre only losing your liability. If you wanted to green out you could for 20 pounds, but is that really worth it? 500 pounds to make 20?? And like you said, theres an 83% chance that Querry holds serve, so in the long run its not worth it! This is NOT a good strategy at all. Betting per game is so risky and very little solid data to back it up. Betting per set is much better.
@ilDomski – It would be great if trading were one way traffic but every good trading strategy has to accept there is a balance to be had between profits and losses, so money management is always key. Most people consider direction to the be the most critical factor when trading but it often isn't. Even if the trade would have failed you had several options as to what to do next. But that's down to each individual. The chance of winning a game is calculated from the underlying market.
if querrey would have lost this game the odds would have gone from 3.02 to 4.34. with 500 pounds in play this would have been a terrible loss (compared to the possible winnings). plus i really don't see how querrey has an 83.3% chance to win this game. where does this value even come from?
OPS.. Comment removed.. but I think your answer is exhaustive!
@tausentosh – With great difficulty. We use a very complicated algorithm to do it and iterate it to home in on the values. It's similar to the method used by odds compilers.