While I was Betfair trading this week I did a trade where I had enough time to tweet out that I thought the move in the betting market had ‘probably gone far enough’.
I have covered these sorts of trades before in other videos but this trade combined two key factors in my decision to actively trade it.
So this video goes into depth about why I did this trade, what made me confident backing had gone far enough and that a reversal was likely. I refer to the other videos here so you can also look at those videos for more depth.
The first one mentioned in this video (The FOMO zone) is here: –
The second, about trading crossovers on Betfair, is here: –
Basically, we look in this video at the key factors that made this a profitable Betfair trade. This trade was done pre-off on horse racing.
#betfairtrading #betangel #sportstrading
Link do Vídeo
Another really helpful tutorial Peter. This is something I am trying to understand quicker. Its good to know that with practice I should get ahead of the curve more often. Your content and the forum are making me a more knowledgeable newbie trader.
When looking for the bounce, do you see this closer to the start times or its random ? How long of a time do you really assess a particular movement, as long as needed ?
how do you manage 10=15 tick move at right angles on the chart ? 6 times tonight it happened
I've been trading now for a year and a half, done every course available from Caan Berrys to Betfair Scalper. Doesnt matter how many tutorials I watch, I lose money every day. Can barely get above a 50% strike rate. Getting close to waving the white flag with it all
It's not uncommon for me to back £5000 and lay £5000 on race or football match with only a fraction of that in my balance.
Hey Peter. You put the same video link in the description twice. Both links are for the FOMO zone video. No link to the crossovers video. As an aside (and I'll make this as quick as possible whilst trying to give you the relevant info) I've been running both teams to score models for 5 leagues this year looking at average goals scored and conceded utilising Euler's number to form percentages for the chance of both teams scoring in a game and the chance of both teams conceding in the same game. First question – and if you get the chance to only speak to one part of this comment please make it this – after how many games in a season do you think there is a big enough data set that average goals scored and conceded even helps in modelling? I know little of Football (I'm an Aussie) but it seems to me 5 games in might not help but then there is only so many games in a season and you have to start betting at some point so maybe you look at previous seasons but is doing so helpful since it could be likely teams had different line ups or played differently in previous seasons? Furthermore, I'm evaluating the stats in 3 different ways and keeping results trying to find a pattern that helps me decide how to weight the chance of both teams scoring coupled with the chance of both teams conceding. As you'd be aware there is countless ways to take 2 percentages and weight them to come up with a decision. Currently I'm running an average of BBT score and BTT concede is > X% = YES. Alternative 2 is summing those 2 percentages > X% = YES. And finally BTT score > X% AND BTT concede > X% = YES. Across 5 leagues and 3 strategies I'm finding different strategies work better for different leagues and of course with my 3 strategies I can adjust X up and down in my spreadsheets and find a sweet spot but that sweet spot is also very different for different leaguse and so it all feels a bit more like luck than confident modelling. Is there a possibility of you doing a video to help people narrow down ways to weight and evaluate BTTS when using Euler's number for scoring and conceding in a game? Also, as a third factor in the model do you think that something as simple as "in particular leagues BTTS = Yes way more often than in other leagues" is helpful? Likely that aforementioned video idea is way too specific. Maybe just a more generalised video on manipulating and evaluating statistics in models to spot trends and at what point you would call something a trend as apposed to a coincidence and start betting (especially when trying to spot a trend using the same model but across multiple leagues)? Or maybe I've just put anyone reading this to sleep?
Why not show the ladder video of this race?
Another first class video. You always deliver.
interesting to note why & where the favourite was losing interest so to speak
Inspirational stuff Peter, thanks as always!
Good video Pete. Interesting point you made about the price drifting and people cashing out. Not a lot of people would think of that pre off. Refreshing as always mate.
So what would have been your exit strategy if the trade went wrong? How far would the price have to go in the opposite direction for you to say the trade has gone wrong?
Thanks.
If possible can you make a video on useful trading formulas?
Thank you peter for the video on football predictions, I predicted the scores on Athletico 2 – 3 Liverpool game by averaging out the goals scored & conceding at 31/1 odds.