Betfair trading profitably over the long term is all about having a positive expectancy, not about winning.
That may sound slightly odd, but getting a strategy that has a high winning strike rate is relatively easy. Getting profitable is a completely different thing.
When you actively trade a Betfair market you can start winning almost immediately. But this could mask the fact that you have no skill and are just producing random trading results.
In this video, we examine how you would work out if you are trading profitably or where it’s just luck, or what is expected of the market.
#betfairtrading #profitable #winning
Vídeo Completo
I'm sure I've made one or two comments on this video in the past. I remember when I first watched this video. It was quite hard to follow along because I didn't understand most of what was being said. However, overtime I have found myself referring to this video and other related videos linked to it. And I have done so quite frequently. And every time I re-watch this video it keeps getting clearer and clearer.
There's a question I would like to ask. Perhaps you may have already done a video and maybe I might ask this on the forum too. How long does it take you to figure out base rate? I thing I can figure it out quite easily when you are talking about straight bets. But when you are looking at a number of ticks, I reckon you would need quite a bit of time to get that value.
I'm asking because I also want to see if I can carry this into Forex trading?
hi dear sir. how can i contect u?….
My approach to things is to keep a log of every trade and compare total successes vs 'expected number of successes' based on odds traded. This is obviously most easy to calculate if you use open bets rather than greening out. It's a pretty good correlation with P+L. If you look at your 'percentage edge' it usually lines up quite closely with ROI over a reasonable period of time.
Peter can I ask, what strategy do u use,
£10 W £10 L
£10 W £5 L
£10 W £ 20 L
Or does it depend on days markets u trade
Thanks in advance
If you say you use a low strike rate strategy why do your P/Ls show winning with a high strike rate showing not many losses?
So how do you improve on the base rate? How do you find ways to improve on it?
Can you give us the base rates for all market types pretty please Peter?
Best video yet that I've seen on your channel Peter. Thanks
peter web and nassim taleb and marcus aurelius and you are sorted
A wonderful tip on trading Peter, does make me think about my trades in general thanks for the video 👍
Can you do a video on how is best to keep a record or log on a spreadsheet with formulas etc ? Maybe there is one but I haven’t found it thanks
So basically all this is bullshit and u are just wasting ur time and health and money and life thanks for destroying peoples life peter.
Correct Peter last week I invreased my Bank from 35 to 75 and next week i blew it to 28. Sometimes trading comes so easily. And next time it seems impossible to achieve even a penny of profit
Really good advice.
I got the idea Peter 🙂 That's what I'm doing in the inplays in horse racing 🙂
Peterdo you do more than one trade a Race ?
Hi Peter, thanks for the good information. Keep it up!! and got a question for you unrelated to this video. So u put 80k on 800/1 (not me)Leicester to win title and odds now at 20/1 would you cash out? Also can you get the liquidity to come out? On betdaq
How long do you test a strategy for before you have the confidence to use real money?
How do we approach managing the losses
When Betangel in Italy on betfair.it ?? We've only Fairbot and traderline..TY
Another superb video. Thanks Peter.
Aines88
So how do you reduce your losses and/or increase your strike rate? That is the question.
Heya Mr Webb, can you please add payment options like PayPal or Sofort? A Lot more people will be able to subscribe to your software. €€€€€
Great video, I've been trading tennis a while and making a consistent profit. It is my favourite sport, i watch it regularly and i used to play. Now the tennis season is over for a month I want to start getting in to trading horses however my knowledge is limited. My question is- Do you think it is essential to know a lot about horse racing to be profitable or can you make profit by just using certain strategies. A lot of my tennis trading is pre-match but comes from knowledge of the players and sensing value and the odds then usually drop.
Thanks Peter. I will start going down the low strike rate road a bit more now.
I'm starting to see lots parallels in sports trading and trading in the financial world. Having discipline, cutting losses and racing winners and the psychological aspect of trading are themes that come up a lot.
I need to get 4 screens set up like that. I have 3 already but they are not all the same size. Would be better to have them arranged like you have.
Fascinating video, feel like it was made for me. There are plenty ways to improve the strike rate and gain an edge. Ive managed to get mine up to over 97% which over time on a similar system which would produce profit over time. My results from August 2018 show this and it's still going strong.
The issue with Lay to Back is the larger losses but there are ways to deal with this to counter it too.
you sound like Brian Fantana, "60% of the time, it works every time"
A really great video Peter. How could anyone down vote it?! 🤷♀️
Facinating stuff. This would suggest virtually everyone can " nearly " succeed – the frustration we have all felt , but by a little tweaking they could be a real success , if only they could find a tiny edge ?
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