Aug.13 — Ben Melkman, founder of Light Sky Macro, expects the Covid-19 pandemic will usher in a world of permanently low interest rates, huge deficits, sluggish growth, resurgent inflation, and declining U.S. power and influence. He also foresees “glory days” ahead for macro traders. Melkman spoke exclusively with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker on “Front Row.”
Link do Vídeo
17:53
Wow, this man is smart. Re-watching in early 2022 and about to finalse position myself for what is ahead. Subscribed! Jan.
So, was Melkman correct when he said "…therefore your expected returns… in terms of equity market returns… are going to be less" ? [17:25]
"if the authorities are actually successful in curing the problem that they see, that's actually what finally blows up the system to a certain extent"
Wow. This is July 2021 and I came back to that interview after almost a year. 5.4% latest CPI reading.
That warning is actually scary.
What a genuinely brilliant interview with a genius guest. Ben is probably the most articulate voice I've heard on the mechanics of multi asset class information from an extraordinary pov. This conversation outdoes many interviews done even with guests such as Druckenmiller on Real Vision. Packed with meticulous detail and freeform thoughts in an easy and comfortable-to-listen-to 30min segment. This is an absolute rare gem.
I enjoyed this interview. I've watched it several times. I believe the most likely area where Ben Melkman is going to miss on his predictions is Long term rates over the coming several years. The Fed will do everything in their Power to keep them Anchored below 3% and they can succeed at this thru a operation twist or Y.C.C . The environment will become more palatable for the fed to do this as early as late 2021 if Stock fall into a severe correction (w rising yields) or in a year as GDP slows from 7% in 2021 (thanks to stimulus and reopening) to much more modest rates around 3.5 in 2022 and Beyond. AS the growth rates slow there will be more political capital to Alter long Rates and keep stock valuations elevated which will help keep pension solvent …which is basically a national security issue
beautifull
It's guys like this that illuminate my ignorance…. damn him.
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This guy is dreaming.
He called the election back in April
“times are great for macro, …by the way, I’ m a macro investor” He can be righ ( I think he is) or he could be wrong. One think is certain, he’s selling his book.
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Wow, 30 minutes from a guy who runs yet another fun that has underperformed the SP500 since inception.
Slavoj zizek of the finance game…
With low rates you want to be in real estate all day
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Melkman sounds like "Dan Halen" from Squidbillies.
Ben is lit! He's been lifting the bag out of it on the rollover.
Brilliant. Thank you.