You can predict the outcome of football matches using this prediction model. The model uses previous goal scoring data and a method called Poisson distribution to determine the probability of certain outcomes including the number of goals and overall result of the game. This model automatically determines the implied odds which you can use to assess if there is an opportunity for value.
This video walks you step by step through the process of creating this model, but if you find it confusing or want to save yourself time I have created and uploaded models for the Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A and Ligue 1 available for you to download…
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Music from Pixabay.com
Disclaimer: This video is made for informational purposes and is NOT financial advice
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Hi everyone! Models for the 2022/23 Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A and Ligue 1 seasons are available for Patreon's https://www.patreon.com/KieMillett
This jumping jack gives nothing for free
Hello, Kie! Brilliant Video! Firstly, I will become a member just to thank the help here. Do you think that the Poisson distribution will be useful to model yellow card bets ? Thanks again for the help! Greetings from Brazil.
It is not a model it is a calculation, a model is dynamic.
This was excellent! I just adjusted it so that it would be applicable to the NFL and now I have my very own model to assist making decisions 🙂 Thank you for taking the time to make this video.
What do the implied odds mean? Any help would be appreciated
It gave me error at the ifs function
Hello Kie😊. I want to incorporate players scoring data and predicted lineup's into this Model. How do i do that?
Hi does anybody know the stats like footystats but for hockey? Thank you in advance.
I KEEP ON GETTING ''IFs expects all arguments after position 0 to be in pairs'' while filling out the average away…. just like at 9;32 of the video. help?
I predicted 3-1 celtic yesterday and 1-1 pool , it was just instinct 👍. Ill try and understand ur formula. Could u give certain matches and give us an idea if a few possible scores? Thanks
Sorry in advance for the long post. I did this for my Mathematics dissertation in 2016, to give the pros and cons of using this model. The model is decently accurate but it depends on many factors. First it depends on the data you use whether the information would be relevant to the current matches so that means how long back shall you go my advice 2 seasons. Next the model over and under estimates goals means that teams who scored lots in the data will continue to score loads of goals and pick up plenty of point and vica versa for low scoring teams. This means in the seasons Man City and Liverpool finished with 98-100 points would have given great return but seasons where the title was won with low 80 points would have given poor returns.
can you upload it to google sheets?
Where is the excel bro?
How would it be to put the ifs formula since my keyboard is Spanish? Could you guide me?
como seria para poner formula ifs?
Hi Kie, thanks for the content!
Since the new season is about to start, do you think the model could be useful after how much of games?
the calculator can be used for any league mike
Hello Kie. please i want you to help me out. am been stock along the line. the formular for average home team gpg scored at home down to average home team gpg conceded at home is not working on my sheet. i have tried to do and undo it many time but no way. kindly help me out. ie B37:B40
Can l do the stasstics with phone kindly advice or l mast have laptop to do model predictions actions.
hey bro, sucha a níce video. You have source code on your Patreon ?