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Disclaimer: Betting and Trading isn’t for everyone and people can lose a lot of money. This isn’t financial advice…please be careful.
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Can you send me your spreadsheet for working out the odds for first half goals. I will buy you a brew 👍
Hey Kie. These videos are great. I have a question for you. I plan to do the form & bet on matches with over 1.5 goals but I plan to wait for the 1st 10mins & get a slightly higher price. Eg before kickoff its 1.35 & 10mins after kickoff its 1.50. My question is will this give me value odds or does it just refect the current chance of over 1.5 goals happening?
What I do is pick home team back odds 2 or less. Avoid the very high and very low scoring leagues. I normally lay the u0.5g fh market.
What I was thinkin of watching this video is laying over 0.5 goals when the odds are low and backing inplay once they're higher to lock in a profit. Do you ever do this?
interesting thanks ^^
I have a lot of success with no first half goal.
This strategy is too hit or miss, but works better on games where there's going to be high scoring changes. A better strat for soccer games is to use the correction score combination strat at halftime or the beginning of the 2nd half where you take the team that is up 1-0 or 2-0 in the match and take that combo and bet on it. If you have enough money to bet on then give yourself some insurance and hedge it with betting on the draw or 2-1, 3-1, and 4-1 combo just in case the other team scores.
Everything conveys info, lineup, state of mind, mixed different tournaments, even full crowd or not
Goals Under or Over Which One Is Best?
Hey man I just like the enthusiasm on your face…..il definitely download and try your view of this……
Interesting break down.
I still wonder, now exchanges are so liquid would the adjustment for 'good' and 'bad' matches not be made?
So two attack minded teams would only hit 2.0 after half an hour, two defence first teams would hit 2.0 less than 15 mins in… Seems unlikely 1 person would have spotted something a large group of layers hadn't, especially on top flight games?
Hello Kie, what is the link to download football goal scoring data? Can't find it. Thank you for the very good content.
Here is a little tip for you all. Select 3 games which start at same time, once game gets to the 20+ min mark, put a bet on each one for 1 goal. As soon as one match has a goal, cash out the other 2 for minimal loss. So for example £100 on each one, 2 minutes later one game has goal = £100, other 2 have a cash out for £90, so lose £20 = £80 profit. If you are super lucky, after 1 has a goal before you cash out the other 2, one of those can have a goal too.
Excellent content!
Such great explanations in your videos Kie, one of the best and most honest thought out trader channels on YT. I think the main point missed is overtrading and fomo. I base trades on the fact that most goals (75% I believe) are scored in the last 15 minutes of each half, so for me there is a focal point where I am looking to trade. I also look at all shots on goal, not just on target and like to see Dangerous attacks at 10% or more higher than the match minutes and all this has to add up 100% even after my match selections and checking if there is value in the odds V probability. Therefore somedays I wont place a bet at all and it's that discipline that makes me profitable.
Keep up the great work!
This can work with hockey, if book makers have a game with a say a score of 1-3 sometimes I pick up an under bet with a 2.5 goals gaps only (under 6.5) around -200 odds, got to be quick because these odds are usually in the third period with 10-5mins left. This bet leaves room for the winning team to score and empty net goal. Or the team that's down to score once and usually the other team will get the empty net goal. Leaving you with 0.5 goal room to win in many scenarios but it's betting still, good luck.
Enter the market only if you are good at reading games and think it’s highly likely a goal will be scored in the first half. Enter the relevant goal market only once the price become volatile, that’s when the market is no longer efficient and there is great risk to reward ratios. My entry points are 12 – 15, add more stakes at 25 – 30, add more stakes at 50 – 70, add more stakes at 100+.
Do this for over 2.5 goals first half market, over 1.5 goals first half market and over 0.5 goals first half market.
Depending on when a goal is scored, you can decide whether to cash out or let the bet ride out until HT.
Next time you watch a match and think there is a high chance of a goal scored in the first half, try this strategy using £1 stakes.
Like most football strategies, your success is dependent on your ability to read how a game will play out.
If you want to beat market efficiencies, enter when the prices are volatile. Generate profits from market price volatility, not when they are stable.
What you describe as a strategy basically is what it comes down to all the time. Your personal skill. The reason your skill is most important is because all the data that you have, the bookmakers have them too. So using stats is pretty useless, just a way to pre-select e.g.
If I take betfair data from 2011-2022 and look at every minute you could place a bet and the average odds (145 million individual bets placed), there is not a single minute which, over the long run is profitbale. On average, you lose 1,2% of your money. Closest is minute 39, where you only lost 0,2% if you bet on over 0,5 goals at min 39 ALL the time.
The thing is, that you cannot trick math.
Great video! I use this strategy sporadically and have seen some great wins (need to be consistent to profit over time!)…. Have you ever thought about entering the strategy at 23/24 minutes, but splitting your stake by 4, thus placing 1/4 of your stake at say 4-5 minute intervals after your 23 minute entry point? —- I feel this would significantly increase profitability percentages, what do you think?
Great video! I learned so much and loved the way you presented the information
Sorry to tell you, it does not make a profit long term.
I have tried this over eight years ago over eighteen months it showed a 6% loss.
Dont get me wrong some betting set ups do work well over full time, first half i have never found a trader thats managed to make it work well.
Tip, if you like to have a bet in first half, for good returns just back the away underdog to win 0-1 in first half and back btts yes to cover the red on the 0-1 + 15% on top.
Cool stuff!
Soccer is my money!! I just keep an eye on a few games and bet over at the right time of the game. Also, look at the last 10-15 games and see how many goals were scored. For example, say the game is 75 minutes in or something like that and the game is 0-0. If you look at both teams and both have never ended in 0-0 end score, then more times than not you bet over 0.5. Just an example of one of my strategies
What site are you using at 12:08?
The is actually half of an actually legit 1st half system that cashes around 90% of the time
U just talk and don’t show anything
“You learn more from failure than from success. Don’t let it stop you. Failure builds character.” — Unknown
For what it's worth this is one of the best and most inspiring football trading videos I've seen on YT and I think I've probably watched most of them at this stage, fair play Kie!
Great work Kie. What software do you use ?
I can’t believe people actually sub to you, there poor wallets, literally.
What's your winning rate using that strategy
Kie, has someone hacked your Telegram account? Might be an idea to take a look👍
Some interesting points but I think you possibly are missing the best and most effective point that you are in control of, the amount of units you bet with,
By also varying the amount bet with you can limit your loses, but increase you winnings with the use of compounding.
Hey mate…miss ur video stay consistent…
I have been betting on underdog and i think there is where the value really lies..betting on underdog that are wrongly priced and are not suppose to underdogs…but your own strategy
Is betting on red card yes/no a good strategy?
Right trading is nothing to do of betting betting means you buy odd and you going to end …
What you can do is find value during 90 min back or lay or lay and back and work the market
And how you know if the price value back at moment or lay so if market offer me odd that i think is lower than whats happening at game i buy the odd and maybe 2 min later the price adjust for right price that supost to be so what you do sale it … if you repeat that 10 times you gonna make money in long term …
My advice is record your screen in 20 or 100 games and write down
Odds for ever minute and also open the bet 365 odds for the market that you wannna studdy
Keep writing per exeample
If match lets imagine
At 85 min the game odd 1.25 for the odd to have other goal i will lay that because
Some games valur are 3 ticks usualy in under leagues 3 ticks per min other leagues 5 or if is over over maybe 7 per min so if you watch and spend hours at front of software that is gonna automatic in your head when the price is valur or not
I continue to give you examples if odd is
1. 25 at 85 m i will lay but even if i thimk.will happen goal and if the odd are 1.50 i will try to back in under goals in some situiacions because the value ther are on under goals but if 85 min is 1.50 and at 88 is 1.20 i will lay under goals because if you think you will have 5 mi extra time you will have 7 m so means the price is 3 ticks per m so i will lay but if the odd 1 min to finish the match are 1.10 i will sale the position because the value at that momemt is on under because pays you 10 ticks per m
This is trading you need spend loads hours and know the prices and you will get it automatic
Punters are hard to be profituble because the syteam are very eficent … trading is compltly diferent
Good luck in your Journey
Real gambler's know… There are no shortcuts in gambling…. sometimes u feel a bet and it loses…and most of the time it's the bet that a sure winner
Another way to take advantage of rising odds is to place 80 per cent of your stake at the starting price and then 20 per cent around the 23rd minute. That way you don't miss out on the early goal but you'll profit from a later one. I have a formula for first half goals based on the odds of the favourite and the over 0.5 goals chance for the entire game. I bet at low odds but have a very high hit rate.
Sorry matey big fan of yours but you have no advantage over the market. The market is so efficient all through the half in respect to the action on the pitch . Some of the biggest syndicates in the world ensure it is on high liquidity matches.
I would be happy with odds 1.7 and a 75 percent strike, do you have any sort of examples of what data you use for good and bad momentum?
Kie millett…. Sir! I'm a big fan of yours. I need a favor from you. I'm from Bangladesh. I need a bet 365 account. Can you please help me to have a varified bet 365 account? I would really appreciate sir! Waiting for your reply!
Just seems like normal betting tbh
you are beating the market by using Stats, Experience and Football Knowledge? And what do you think the bookies are using? Tarot cards?
Not bad