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What is Positive EV Sports Betting? (Better than Arbitrage!) (using OddsJam)








👋🏻 Hey guys! In today’s video, I explain what is Plus EV / Positive EV sports betting (sportsbetting) and in the end got banned. I utilise plus EV / positive EV since after trialling many methods, I found it was vastly superior to arbitrage betting and allowed me to make a lot more money. I explain all about +EV betting in this video with some examples and also arbitrage betting examples as well. Hope you guys can find it insightful but please do more research first on positive EV betting and make sure you understand the maths before betting any of your actual money.

🏆 🏆 For those looking to learn more about risk free arbitrage betting/ positive EV betting in the United States, I would recommend using a odds comparison tool that I mentioned in the video- OddsJam:
This is the equivalent of Bonusbank (Australia) but OddsJam is specifically made for US based sports bettors at the moment. To get 25% off your first month for OddsJam:
1. Sign up using this link here:
2. Use the code: SHANE25 for 25% off your 1st month.

If you enjoy this video and want to see more about money or university life, please leave a comment down below saying what you would like to see next and any new video ideas are always appreciated!

🙋🏻‍♂️ Who am I?
My name is Shane and I am an Australian 4th year student studying Engineering and Commerce at The University of Sydney. This channel is dedicated to studying tips, money and insights into college life. I hope you can find this useful! Enjoy!

✌️ Remember to SUBSCRIBE! See you in the next one!

DISCLAIMER: Some links in this video description are be affiliate links. If you purchase a product using one of these links, I may receive a small commission at no additional cost to you. Thank you for supporting the channel!

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36 ComentĂĄrios

  1. Brother, nice content. If you have any betting stakes, you could sell and make money due to your calculations. If you are currently making money off betting fuel to this, I'm interested if you have betting stakes.

  2. FUNNY VIDEO any professional sports bettor this guy is calling him arbitrage bettor, while he is the ev bettor, putting all his bankroll on head or tails because he THINKS HE have ev on one or the other,ignore the logical and proven win and go like a headless chicken on black or red with his whole bankroll eg 9$ , because his smart ass thinks he has ev on that bet. gg. actually the pro, calculate the correct odds even before the sharp bookie, and then the sharp bookie adjusts his markets to THAT PRO

  3. Wait, I thought in your last video you said you were banned from all the betting sites. So now you work for one?

  4. I've been doing something similar with futures for a decade. I only take spots that are +10% ev or greater. I've been doing everything by hand the entire time. Its very time consuming but well worth it when you find the right spots and can get large amounts down. Some books will limit you after a while though.

  5. I'm running into trouble with the idea of calculating the probablity of each of two teams winning a game as 50%. Yes, with a coin toss there is absolutely a 50% chance of getting either outcome, however I don't think the odds are equal when it comes to sports events. Yea, there are two possible outcomes, so in that respect it's 1/2, however I hardly think a healthy Phoenix Suns team has the same chances of winning as a healthy Houston Rockets team (they currently have the best and worst records in the NBA). Would it be better to use some sort of win percentage weighting to make the calculation (The the two percentages should still add up to 100)?

    My calculations would put the Houston odds at 23.38% and the Phoenix odds at 78.62% if they were playing each other today.

  6. The question I have is how to find +Ev/arbitrage bets in the UK. There are plenty of sites offering needless ‘tools’ for a premium membership, but what I really need is something which finds the lines or at least indicates the possibilities.

  7. Whilst understanding the mathematics, finding these positive ev scenarios is extremely difficult, plus it won’t be long before your account gets heavily restricted or shut down by the online bookmakers.

  8. I must admit that your strategy got me confused. 4/1.8 odds will never reflect a 50/50 situation. Moreover, no sports event presents the same exact odds of happening as the other. Therefore, regarding your long term EV and probabilities system, wouldn’t it be impossible to achieve since you’re betting on different, singular events, of which none presents itself as a 50/50 situation? What am I missing cap?

  9. So to be clear, is it a positive EV trade in a binary event if we were to average the odds of one outcome across all bookmakers which averages to say -300 or 1.33 and then we find the best odd on the other outcome which is +320 or 4.2. Does the +320 or 4.2 bet count as a positive EV bet since +320 is greater than the average other odd of -300? Is this how you identify positive EV bets or is there a different formula?

  10. Bro you need to make a real example cuz this doesn’t make any sense. Sports isint coin toss and I’ve never in life seen such good odds given u less your betting on a really bad team that has no chanse of winning so how does any of this make sense show an actual real life example of this being used

  11. Can you set which books you want the tools to use for arbitrage betting odds comparison? For example. I just want to use fanduel, mgm, caesars, barstool, pointsbet or does it just show every book possible?

  12. When your odds are not 50/50 like a coin toss, your numbers can look much worse than what was shown. I’d be interested to see the distribution of the odds of the positive EV opportunities. Are they normally distributed around 0.5? That’s what this video implies…

  13. I do this job 6 year the guys who earn true money knows that more gys do arbitrage more the bookies and the security will be better so this guy who do this video is the biggest scammer

  14. The arbitrage/ev+ better comparison is a little bit flawed: An arbitrage better would not place that hedge bet for such bad odds, but rather for nearly fair odds, for example at a betting exchange. If you assume that he can bet the hedge bet a the fair odds of 2, you get the same expected value of 3$..

  15. I work in a sport betting company under the trading department. This strategy works because different bookmakers in different parts of the world deals with different customer base. Different customers base bet differently and bookmakers are just risk managers who dont really take position on the book. We skew the odds to attract arbitragers to offload excess risk.

    I used to work in finance and like sport betting, arbitrage strategies are not very sustainable. Because ultimately, its comes down to computing power and speed.

  16. My only question is when do you the +ev formula, what answer are you expecting to get? I tried the formula for some practice on theoretical odds and it worked great however i dont know what answer im expecting. If its positive does that mean ill potentially make money? Or does it need to be above a certain number?

  17. Shane explain me. If a Game like : Galatasaray vs Barcelona plays. Why are the odds not 50/50 for each team?? Like your cointoss?? Teams are not equaly STRONG so even if the odds are 7.5 for Galatasaray, 1.36 for Barcelona and 5.25 for a Draw. The EV for Galatasaray is high but still the odds are not 50/50 but more like 75/25… this makes no sence to me so long term u still lose the money they already calculated.

  18. arbitrage betting is legit, no doubt. but this is some major bs right there. unless you actually have a way of estimating probabilities there is no way to actually calculate the EV. In other words, unless you know the probabilities you cannot tell WHO has the mispriced odds. For arbitrage betting you don't need that, for EV betting as described here you do. Take you coin toss, you only know to take the odds @4 because you know the probability. If you didn't you wouldn't know 4 is good it might suck if the coin has two identical sides. Take a simpler case. A boxing match gives you 4/1 on both boxers as well as a draw. But the match is rigged and the chance of boxer 1 winning is 100%. you bet 1$ on each outcome you win (even though you have no idea what is going on) but even though you got a clearly mispriced bet you need to have inside info to make the EV bet, which is all money on boxer 1 if that isn't obvious.

  19. When you were providing the positive ev example, the win percentage was at 58%. What is the significance of this number, and what determines this number?

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