In this video you will find out how much profit you’re likely to make either betting or trading on Betfair when backing at short odds. It is difficult to pinpoint exactly when odds become “too short”, however from this video you will learn that the shorter the odds the worse the value is for you, both when outright value betting or from opening your trade at low odds as a Betfair trader.
If you’d like to download my expected value calculator and also support the channel, check me out on Patreon (all donations invested back into Betfair Trading):
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Video Link:
Link do palpite
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I can't believe what an excellent series of videos you've made, and your presentation is superb. Very well done.
I’d be laying the winning team, not backing the winning team – surely that’s just common sense!
Ah yes…I noticed that it took very little to move the odds when they were very high and that they moved at a greater margin than very low odds. Thanks for putting it in maths. Very good info here…subed
At the end of the day it all comes down to your strike rate against the odds
If you only back even money shots (2.00) then as long as you are right more than you are wrong then you're in profit
A 40% strikerate at evens is losing money, a 60% strikerate at evens is making you a 20% ROI
If you back 1.10 shots you need a 91% strikerate before you become profitable
Very good video. Hoiwever I have found over many years that there is actually unexpectedly good value at backing at very low odds (though not in play). Backing at 1.05 gives an implied probability of around 95 per cent. the real probabiility over time in my records is more like 97-98 oer cent. This is in certain football leagues only.
Funny you put Brighton v man city. Yesterday I lay man city@ 1.37 vs brighton.
Can you make a video how to find the right price for a football team to win based on previous performance. In one word- how many games are enough to take into account to reach an accurate xG. Thanks
Very useful information. Thank you.